Premier League · Mon 26 Oct · 15:00 UTC
Chelsea v Manchester City
Final prediction
Manchester City win
51% confidence · likely score 1-1
26%
Chelsea
24%
Draw
51%
Manchester City
Kicks off at 15:00 UTC. The result will be graded in the record.
Other markets
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55% · Over
- Both teams to score
- 56% · Yes
- Expected goals
- 1.16 – 1.73
Most likely scorelines
- 1-111.2%
- 1-29.6%
- 0-19.6%
- 0-28.3%
- 2-16.5%
- 1-06.5%
Team profile
TeamAtk / DefLast 5
Chelsea1.15 / 0.95WLDLW
Manchester City1.45 / 0.70WDWWW
Why this prediction
- Chelsea attack index 1.15 meets Manchester City defence index 0.70 (higher means more goals conceded): 1.16 expected goals.
- Manchester City attack index 1.45 meets Chelsea defence index 0.95: 1.73 expected goals, after a home-advantage edge for Chelsea.
- Form over the last five: Chelsea 7 points, Manchester City 13 points, applied as a small adjustment to each side's goal rate.
- The simulation gives 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.