PitchLedger

Sun 25 Oct · board live

Every match, priced by the numbers.

Fresh predictions for the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1, rebuilt every day from team strength, recent form and a goal simulation. Each pick is logged and graded in public.

Today's predictions See the accuracy record
Result accuracy (1X2)
46%
Confident picks (55%+)
58%
Over/Under 2.5 accuracy
60%
Matches graded
252

The daily board

Sat 24 OctTodayMon 26 OctTue 27 Oct
All leagues Premier LeagueLa LigaSerie ABundesligaLigue 1

Highest confidence

#1 · 68%

Bayern Munich win

Bayern Munich v Freiburg · Bundesliga

Likely score 2-0

#2 · 60%

Paris Saint-Germain win

Paris Saint-Germain v Lille · Ligue 1

Likely score 1-0

#3 · 58%

Atlético Madrid win

Atlético Madrid v Sevilla · La Liga

Likely score 1-0

Premier League

Premier League · 15:00 45% conf

Chelsea

v

Arsenal

1 · 30%X · 26%2 · 45%
Pick Arsenal win 1-1 · O2.5 49%
Premier League · 18:45 38% conf

Brighton

v

Newcastle

1 · 38%X · 27%2 · 35%
Pick Brighton win 1-1 · O2.5 46%
Premier League · 20:45 40% conf

Tottenham

v

Liverpool

1 · 36%X · 25%2 · 40%
Pick Liverpool win 1-1 · O2.5 56%

La Liga

La Liga · 15:00 45% conf

Athletic Club

v

Barcelona

1 · 29%X · 26%2 · 45%
Pick Barcelona win 1-1 · O2.5 49%
La Liga · 18:45 58% conf

Atlético Madrid

v

Sevilla

1 · 58%X · 25%2 · 17%
Pick Atlético Madrid win 1-0 · O2.5 40%
La Liga · 20:45 38% conf

Villarreal

v

Real Sociedad

1 · 38%X · 27%2 · 36%
Pick Villarreal win 1-1 · O2.5 48%

Serie A

Serie A · 15:00 43% conf

Juventus

v

Atalanta

1 · 43%X · 27%2 · 30%
Pick Juventus win 1-1 · O2.5 46%
Serie A · 18:45 46% conf

Lazio

v

Roma

1 · 46%X · 27%2 · 27%
Pick Lazio win 1-1 · O2.5 43%
Serie A · 20:00 49% conf

Napoli

v

AC Milan

1 · 49%X · 25%2 · 26%
Pick Napoli win 1-1 · O2.5 49%

Bundesliga

Bundesliga · 15:00 51% conf

RB Leipzig

v

Borussia Dortmund

1 · 51%X · 22%2 · 27%
Pick RB Leipzig win 1-1 · O2.5 65%
Bundesliga · 18:45 51% conf

Eintracht Frankfurt

v

Wolfsburg

1 · 51%X · 24%2 · 25%
Pick Eintracht Frankfurt win 1-1 · O2.5 54%
Bundesliga · 18:45 68% conf

Bayern Munich

v

Freiburg

1 · 68%X · 19%2 · 13%
Pick Bayern Munich win 2-0 · O2.5 55%

Ligue 1

Ligue 1 · 15:00 60% conf

Paris Saint-Germain

v

Lille

1 · 60%X · 23%2 · 17%
Pick Paris Saint-Germain win 1-0 · O2.5 46%
Ligue 1 · 17:30 54% conf

Monaco

v

Rennes

1 · 54%X · 24%2 · 23%
Pick Monaco win 1-1 · O2.5 53%
Ligue 1 · 18:45 42% conf

Lyon

v

Marseille

1 · 42%X · 25%2 · 34%
Pick Lyon win 1-1 · O2.5 56%

From raw strength to a final call

  1. 01

    Rate the teams

    Attack and defence indices for every club in five leagues.

  2. 02

    Read the form

    Last five results nudge each side's expected goals up or down.

  3. 03

    Simulate the score

    A Poisson model prices every scoreline from 0-0 to 7-7.

  4. 04

    Publish and grade

    Probabilities become a pick, then the result grades it, win or lose.

Read the full method

Tomorrow's board builds itself at midnight.

Come back each day for new analysis, then check the record to see how yesterday's calls landed.

Open the record