PitchLedger

Sun 25 Oct · board live

Every match, priced by the numbers.

Fresh predictions for eight leagues, from the Premier League and La Liga to the Eredivisie and Primeira Liga, rebuilt every day from team strength, recent form and a goal simulation. Each pick is logged and graded in public.

Result accuracy (1X2)
45%
Confident picks (55%+)
52%
Over/Under 2.5 accuracy
55%
Matches graded
411

Highest confidence

La Liga

From raw strength to a final call

  1. 01

    Rate the teams

    Attack and defence indices for every club in eight leagues.

  2. 02

    Read the form

    Last five results nudge each side's expected goals up or down.

  3. 03

    Simulate the score

    A Poisson model prices every scoreline from 0-0 to 7-7.

  4. 04

    Publish and grade

    Probabilities become a pick, then the result grades it, win or lose.

Read the full method

Tomorrow's board builds itself at midnight.

Come back each day for new analysis, then check the record to see how yesterday's calls landed.

Open the record