PitchLedger

Sun 25 Oct · board live

Every match, priced by the numbers.

Fresh predictions for eight leagues, from the Premier League and La Liga to the Eredivisie and Primeira Liga, rebuilt every day from team strength, recent form and a goal simulation. Each pick is logged and graded in public.

Today's predictions See the accuracy record
Result accuracy (1X2)
45%
Confident picks (55%+)
52%
Over/Under 2.5 accuracy
55%
Matches graded
411

The daily board

Sat 24 OctTodayMon 26 OctTue 27 Oct
All leagues Premier LeagueLa LigaSerie ABundesligaLigue 1EredivisiePrimeira LigaChampionship

Highest confidence

#1 · 57%

Leeds United win

Leeds United v Middlesbrough · Championship

Likely score 1-0

#2 · 49%

Sunderland win

Sunderland v Watford · Championship

Likely score 1-0

#3 · 47%

Burnley win

Burnley v Millwall · Championship

Likely score 1-0

Championship

Championship · 15:00 47% conf

Burnley

v

Millwall

1 · 47%X · 29%2 · 24%
Pick Burnley win 1-0 · O2.5 34%
Championship · 20:00 49% conf

Sunderland

v

Watford

1 · 49%X · 27%2 · 25%
Pick Sunderland win 1-0 · O2.5 43%
Championship · 20:45 57% conf

Leeds United

v

Middlesbrough

1 · 57%X · 23%2 · 19%
Pick Leeds United win 1-0 · O2.5 49%

From raw strength to a final call

  1. 01

    Rate the teams

    Attack and defence indices for every club in eight leagues.

  2. 02

    Read the form

    Last five results nudge each side's expected goals up or down.

  3. 03

    Simulate the score

    A Poisson model prices every scoreline from 0-0 to 7-7.

  4. 04

    Publish and grade

    Probabilities become a pick, then the result grades it, win or lose.

Read the full method

Tomorrow's board builds itself at midnight.

Come back each day for new analysis, then check the record to see how yesterday's calls landed.

Open the record